6 X-factors that will decide fate of Maharashtra in assembly polls

With the last date of withdrawal and Diwali festivities over, the battle for Maharashtra enters its last leg. There are 4,136 candidates in the fray for 288 seats. After the Lok Sabha debacle, the Mahayuti, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party, the Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar), and the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde), has announced several schemes for corrective action.
On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi hopes voters will punish the BJP like in the general elections for splitting regional parties like the NCP and the Shiv Sena. It is also banking on Marathi Asmita. The Mahayuti, meanwhile, is banking on welfare schemes and developmental and infrastructural pushes. But what are the X-factors in these elections?
Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana
The Mahayuti government has launched the Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, a scheme for women in families whose annual income is less than Rs 2.5 lakh. From July to October, Rs 1,500 per month has been provided to 2.34 crore women beneficiaries, almost half of the total female voter base. This translates to nearly 80,000 beneficiaries per Vidhan Sabha seat.
The Mahayuti hopes this will neutralise rural-agricultural distress and help it gain votes among women. A similar scheme worked for the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress was touted as a favourite. Women voters are increasingly assuming the role of kingmakers. The Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana has been well-received among women. Many hail Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, who has promised that the dole will be increased to Rs 2,100 per month if the Mahayuti retains power.
Others, however, caution that inflation has significantly increased under the BJP rule and the cash dole is paltry. Men from poor families are not happy at being left out, while well-off voters — both men and women — question the freebie culture straining the state’s fiscal deficit.
Urban development vs rural distress
Maharashtra is divided into six zones. Three of them, Vidarbha, Marathwada and large parts of North Maharashtra, are economically backward. The other three zones, Mumbai, Thane-Konkan, and Western Maharashtra, are richer with per capita income two or three times higher. So, there are two states within a state and both incidentally account for exactly half of the assembly’s strength.
A perfect dichotomy, Maharashtra accounts for the highest number of farmer suicides in the country at 37.6 per cent for 2022, while it also contributes the highest to the country’s GDP at 13.3 per cent for FY22-23. Vidarbha and Marathwada are hotbeds of farmer suicides, facing droughts and famines. Rural distress is also one of the key reasons for Marathas, an otherwise influential community, demanding reservations.
Water scarcity, low crop prices, and a ban on the export of onions, when markets were lucrative internationally, have led to Mahayuti trailing the MVA in these zones. The Mahayuti has promised to increase the Shetkari Samman Yojana from Rs 12,000 per annum to Rs 15,000. The MVA has promised farm loan waivers.
Both alliances were neck and neck in Mumbai and Western Maharashtra with the Mahayuti leading in Thane-Konkan. In these regions, development is a key issue. This is why the Mahayuti government has inaugurated a slew of infrastructure projects like the Atal Setu Bridge, while ports, airports, and roads are in the pipeline.
Seamless vote transfer
For the success of any alliance, seamless vote transfer with minimum leakage is of the utmost importance. Two plus two is not four in politics; it’s either three or five in the context of alliances. Alliances often disturb social coalitions — both, the MVA and the Mahayuti have unnatural partners in the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar) respectively.
Both alliances have three strong contenders from each seat. Wherever the NCP (Ajit Pawar) sitting MLA is given a ticket by the Mahayuti, in 2019, they would have defeated the BJP/Sena candidate. Wherever the Sena (Uddhav) candidate is fielded by the MVA, they would have faced the Congress/NCP candidate in 2019. Undivided NCP has fought against the BJP and the Sena since its inception, while the undivided Shiv Sena has always fought against the Congress and the NCP.
When they join hands, a 100 per cent vote transfer is a mirage. The split in both parties and the debate of “asli versus nakli” further complicated matters. The index of chemistry of alliance, which is pre-poll vote share divided by post-poll vote share, is higher for the MVA at 79 per cent; for the Mahayuti, it’s 64 per cent for Lok Sabha elections 2024. This indicates relatively better vote transfer between the Congress, the NCP (Sharad Pawar), and the Sena (Uddhav) in the general elections.
Muslim voters of the Congress and the NCP (Sharad) also voted in large numbers (72 per cent support) for Sena (Uddhav) candidates due to their anti-BJP sentiments. On the other hand, Muslim voters of the undivided NCP didn’t back the Ajit Pawar faction for allying with the BJP, leading to its rout. While SHS-UBT bagged 56% of undivided Sena support, NCP-SP bagged 74% winning the first round of legacy battle in the general elections 2024.
Maratha vs OBC
The Maratha agitation damaged the prospects of Mahayuti, especially in Marathwada where it trailed 12-32 in Assembly segments against the MVA in the general elections. Manoj Jarange Patil gave a clarion call to vote for candidates in a better position to defeat the BJP, a party that did not give Marathas their due credit. Mahayuti leader Chhagan Bhujbal openly criticised the demand, calling for Other Backward Classes to unite against this to prevent the shortening of their slice in the reservation pie.
50 per cent of OBC voters backed the Mahayuti in 2024, with a lead of 11 per cent against the MVA. Over the past few months, this polarisation has increased with the lead widening to 16 per cent. Despite Jarange Patil’s decision to withdraw candidates and leave it to community members to take a call, Marathas are likely to vote against the Mahayuti in Marathwada. MVA leaders may have persuaded Jarange Patil to withdraw as it would have divided the Opposition vote. The divide is so sharp that OBCs will not vote for Maratha candidates and vice versa.
Independents and rebels
Others, which include smaller parties and independents, have always had a role in Maharashtra politics. Smaller parties like the Peasants and Workers Party of India, the Samajwadi Party, the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, the Jan Surajya Shakti, the Republican Party of India (Athawale), the Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen etc have pockets of influence. On average, Others have won 30 seats with a 25 per cent vote share in the last five polls.
In the 2024 general elections, Others were leading in just nine seats bagging 13 per cent of the vote share. With a high number of candidates per seat, up from 11.2 in 2019 to 14.4 in 2024, they could play the role of spoiler. In 2019, many seats saw triangular or multipolar contests resulting in close contests. In 71 seats, the victory margin was less than five per cent. In 108 seats, the second runner-up scored more than the victory margin, spoiling the chances of the runner-up.
There are many rebels in the fray, almost equal in number from the MVA and the Mahayuti, on almost half the seats. Also, many significant candidates who have contested earlier or belong to political families are in the fray (even contesting from both sides, like in Aheri, Baramati, Sindkhedraja etc.) making it a close seat-by-seat contest where micromanagement could play a key role. MVA and Mahayuti are also engaged in friendly fights in a few seats like Morshi, Deolali, Pandharpur, Sindkhedraja, Shrirampur, Mankhurd etc.
Marathi vs Gujarati
Migrants made up around eight per cent of the population of Maharashtra, the top five states being Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. In Mumbai, migrants make up 43 per cent of the population. Data shows that Maharashtrians make up about 42 per cent of Mumbai’s population, with Gujaratis accounting for about 19 per cent.
Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar are playing up the Marathi Asmita angle, blaming the BJP for breaking Marathi parties and occupying power illegally. The fact that some projects like Foxconn, Vedanta etc. have moved from Maharashtra to Gujarat has provided them with firepower to make it a Marathi versus Gujarati battle, exhorting the Marathi Manoos to take revenge. Gujaratis control many businesses and are well off and Narendra Modi’s accession at the top has given rise to Gujarati nationalism in Mumbai.
This battle has roots in the Samyukta Maharashtra movement for the creation of a separate state. While this may resonate largely in urban centres of the Mumbai Metropolitan Area, this may not work in rural areas where the migrant population is low. It is believed that the BJP enjoys the support of Gujaratis and North Indians, while the undivided Sena and Congress enjoy the support of Marathis in Mumbai.
To sum up, there are many competing themes in play in Maharashtra and the X-factors would play a role in results.